What are
prediction markets?
From elections and the World Cup to “Will BTC close above X?”, prediction markets turn outcomes into tradable shares. Simple to use — but it’s still a bet.
Pricing the outcome of events
Each market has a “Yes” and a “No”. Shares trade between $0 and $1:
- A price of 0.30 means the market sees about a 30% chance;
- when the event resolves, winning shares pay $1 and losing shares pay $0;
- you can sell before resolution at the market price.
In 2026 prediction markets spread from Polymarket to major exchanges. OKX launched outcome markets and a free World Cup prediction campaign, then expanded to crypto-price and macro events. Availability depends on your region.
How an event contract works
- Pick an event, e.g. “Will BTC be above a set price on Friday?”.
- Buy “Yes” if you think it will happen, “No” if not.
- At 0.40 per “Yes” share, a win pays 1 (+0.60); a loss costs 0.40.
- Hold to settlement or sell early to lock in gains or losses.
Unlike futures, your maximum loss is what you paid — no liquidation — but a wrong call loses all of it.
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Exchange outcome markets vs Polymarket
| Exchange outcome markets | On-chain (e.g. Polymarket) | |
|---|---|---|
| Account | Your exchange account | Your own on-chain wallet |
| Funding | USDT already in your account | Stablecoins bridged to the right chain |
| Topics | Mostly crypto prices and major events | Politics, sports, culture and more |
| Region limits | Exchange’s service regions | Platform’s own restrictions |
Risks and legal limits
- It’s a wager: wrong calls lose the full stake.
- Legality varies: many places treat these as gambling or regulated derivatives — follow your local law.
- Information edge: insiders may know more than you.
- Campaigns ≠ products: free prediction games differ from paid event contracts.
Prediction markets
FAQ.
01Does OKX have a prediction market?
OKX launched outcome markets and World Cup prediction campaigns in 2026 and has expanded to more events. What you can access depends on your region.
02Can I get liquidated?
No. Your maximum loss is the amount you paid for the shares — but you can lose all of it.
03Are prediction markets legal?
It depends on your jurisdiction; many treat them as gambling or regulated derivatives. Check local law first.
04Are they good for beginners?
Treat free campaigns as a way to learn. With real money, keep stakes tiny and think of it as entertainment, not investing.
Keep reading,
related tutorials.
Practice first, learn charts, indicators and jargon, size positions properly — then put real money in.
OKX demo trading
Practice with ~100,000 USDT of virtual funds: how to open it, what to practice, how to reset.
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GUIDE / CRYPTO-GLOSSARYCrypto glossary for beginners
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GUIDE / TECHNICAL-INDICATORSMACD, RSI & moving averages
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GUIDE / RISK-MANAGEMENTCan you owe money after liquidation?
Liquidation vs bankruptcy, leverage distance, the 2% rule, and what to do after a loss.